Tarique Rahman, son of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chief Begum Khaleda Zia, has made his long-awaited return to Bangladesh after an absence of nearly 17 years. This significant event has been met with considerable enthusiasm among BNP supporters and is being viewed as a pivotal moment in the nation’s political landscape.
Political Climate and India’s Interests
Rahman’s homecoming occurs at a time when Bangladesh is navigating a period of severe political instability. The country has seen violent movements across various regions, alongside the growing influence of radical groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami. For India, Tarique Rahman’s return carries particular importance. The pro-India Awami League is currently barred from participating in elections, while Khaleda Zia is hospitalized. In this context, Bangladesh faces a crossroads under the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus, where radical Islamic elements have become active, and anti-India rhetoric has escalated. India’s primary concern revolves around Jamaat-e-Islami, which is perceived as a supporter of Pakistan’s ISI. After being banned during Sheikh Hasina’s administration, Jamaat has regained political standing following a change in government last year.
Recent public opinion surveys indicate that the BNP is likely to secure the most seats in upcoming elections, yet its former ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, presents a strong challenge. India’s apprehension is further heightened by Jamaat’s student wing achieving an unexpected victory in the Dhaka University student union elections.
BNP’s Stance and Future Outlook
India sees the BNP as a relatively moderate and democratic option, despite historically strained relations between them. New Delhi anticipates that Tarique Rahman’s return will reinvigorate party workers and potentially lead the BNP to form the next government. During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh fostered close ties with India and maintained a balanced distance from China and and Pakistan. However, under the Yunus government, there has been an observed increase in proximity to Pakistan and a growing distance from India. India is hopeful that a BNP government would bring about a shift in foreign policy. On December 1, Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly expressed concern for Khaleda Zia’s health and offered India’s cooperation, a gesture for which the BNP conveyed its gratitude, marking a rare positive interaction after years of tension.
Tarique Rahman has voiced his disagreements with the Yunus government, questioning its long-term foreign policy decisions. He has also openly criticized Jamaat-e-Islami and denied any possibility of an alliance with them in the elections. Earlier this year, while residing in London, Rahman articulated a ‘Bangladesh First’ foreign policy, echoing the ‘America First’ slogan. He stated, “Neither Delhi, nor Pindi, Bangladesh First,” underscoring the BNP’s intention to maintain distance from both Rawalpindi and Delhi.
The Grand Return and Political Implications
Tarique Rahman’s arrival in Dhaka was a grand spectacle, with claims of approximately 5 million BNP workers participating in a roadshow from the airport to his residence. He is expected to contest elections from the Bogura 6 (Sadar) seat, while party chief Khaleda Zia will run from her stronghold, Bogura 7 (Gabtali Shajahanpur). Sources suggest that this display of strength has not been well-received by radical elements, raising the possibility of confrontations between the BNP and Jamaat before the elections. The government had implemented the highest level of security measures. Local media reported that around 3 lakh supporters traveled to the capital on 10 special trains, an event which the BNP described as a ‘historic crowd’.
Tarique Rahman, son of former President Ziaur Rahman, had been living in London since 2008. He was convicted in several cases during Sheikh Hasina’s administration, charges that the BNP consistently described as politically motivated. His arrest in 2007 on corruption charges was followed by allegations of severe health issues and mistreatment during custody. Granted bail in 2008, he was permitted to travel to London for medical treatment and has resided there ever since. He was also sentenced in absentia for his alleged involvement in the 2004 Dhaka grenade attack, which resulted in 24 fatalities and narrowly missed Sheikh Hasina. In a 2008 Dhaka Tribune report series that exposed corruption during the 2001-06 BNP government, he was referred to as the ‘Dark Prince’. However, over the past year, courts have acquitted him in all major cases.
