David Rubenstein, co-founder of the prominent US private equity firm Carlyle Group, has projected that India is on track to become the world’s largest economy within the next two to three decades. Rubenstein shared this significant forecast during an interview at the ongoing World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
Current Economic Standing and Future Growth
Rubenstein remarked, “I believe that in our lifetime, India can become the world’s largest economy. I would say this could happen in perhaps 20-30 years.” Currently, India holds the position of the world’s fourth-largest economy and is recognized as the fastest-growing globally. It is anticipated to soon surpass Germany, securing the third spot. The United States presently leads as the largest economy, with China ranking second. India’s rapid advancement is expected to eventually overtake both the US and China. Rubenstein also emphasized the advantage India possesses with its youthful population, which he believes will be a substantial asset in the long term.
Strategic Economic Advice and Geopolitical Insights
In his address to Indian policymakers, Rubenstein advised against viewing global private credit and private equity (PE) as merely Western investment. He explained that private equity involves firms investing in companies not yet listed on the stock market, while private credit entails companies providing direct loans outside of traditional banks. He stated, “If these markets are allowed to grow, well-capitalized Indian entrepreneurs will come to India, and many will stay and work in India.” The Carlyle Group has invested over $8 billion across various sectors in India.
Regarding US-India relations, Rubenstein expressed no concerns, noting that former President Trump generally held a very positive stance on the relationship and dispatched a close associate as ambassador. He further commented on Trump’s China policy, indicating its aim was to rectify trade imbalances rather than to harm China. China’s annual surplus from increased sales in other markets exceeds one trillion dollars. However, Rubenstein suggested that for Trump, the Russia-Ukraine situation holds more significance than China. He indicated that Trump believes he has a strong relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and anticipates at least two meetings this year, potentially leading to an agreement.
