India’s natural gas market is witnessing significant growth, with consumption projected to surge by 60 percent to 103 billion cubic meters (BCM) annually by 2030. This increasing demand, fueled by the rising use of CNG, PNG, and industrial applications, is a key factor influencing price movements in the coming years.
Current Price Landscape and Short-Term Projections
Currently, natural gas prices in India hover around 280-290 rupees per MMBtu, with MCX trading reflecting similar figures. Experts anticipate that rising demand coupled with potential global supply shortages will necessitate higher spending on LNG imports. This scenario is expected to drive prices upward, with forecasts suggesting a range of 340–420 rupees per MMBtu by 2030. Furthermore, government support and infrastructure development are accelerating gas consumption, potentially pushing prices to approximately 350–440 rupees per MMBtu by 2027.
Mid-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Despite an anticipated increase in LNG capacity by 2028, demand pressures are expected to persist, keeping prices within the 360–460 rupees per MMBtu range. The continued high demand and reliance on imports could further inflate prices, potentially leading to trading in the 370–480 rupees per MMBtu range by 2029. By 2030, as India’s gas consumption expands by about 60 percent, prices are projected to trade between 380–500 rupees per MMBtu, supported by sustained demand. Such price escalations could impact the costs of transportation, electricity, and daily essentials, affecting both middle-class household budgets and operational expenses for small businesses.
