Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has publicly stated that Moscow is ready for a “new reality” in which there are no formal limits on nuclear weapons between the world’s two leading nuclear powers after the New START nuclear arms control treaty expires. The treaty — signed by the United States and Russia in 2010 — includes limits on deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems, but is set to lapse on February 5, 2026, unless a last-minute agreement is reached.
Background of New START
The New START agreement was originally negotiated to cap the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for both the U.S. and Russia, with additional limits on delivery vehicles including missiles and bombers. The treaty also established verification and inspection regimes that have provided transparency into nuclear force levels for both sides for over a decade.
Russia’s Position on Treaty Expiry
Speaking from Beijing during strategic talks, Ryabkov said that the absence of a response from Washington to Russia’s proposal for a temporary extension of the treaty’s limits “is also an answer.” He asserted that Russia is prepared for a world where nuclear arms control limits no longer exist between the two nuclear superpowers.
Stance of the United States
The United States has not formally responded to Moscow’s suggestion to extend the treaty’s limits for an interim period. Washington’s reluctance has led to increasing uncertainty over the future of nuclear arms control. Analysts say this could erode confidence and verification mechanisms that have been central to preventing misunderstandings and escalation.
Implications for Global Security
Legal experts and former policymakers have warned that the lapse of the New START treaty without a successor agreement could heighten the risk of an arms race. Without binding limits, nuclear arsenals may be expanded more rapidly, and the loss of verification processes could reduce transparency between major powers.
China and Broader Arms Control Talks
Ryabkov also referenced Russia’s support for China’s position on arms control, while underscoring Moscow’s disapproval of what it views as U.S. ultimatums in nuclear diplomacy. Russia continues to call for broader, multilateral engagement on arms regulation, though China has shown little interest in such negotiations to date.
Military Countermeasures and Defense Systems
In addition, Ryabkov suggested that Russia would respond with compensatory military measures if the United States deployed extensive missile defense systems in strategic areas, such as Greenland, reflecting broader tensions around strategic stability beyond the treaty itself.
