The global economy has experienced turbulence due to tariffs, with the United States reportedly venturing into a new and sensitive geopolitical domain. The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at the beginning of 2026 sent ripples through international politics. While officially attributed to drug trafficking and corruption, experts view this development through the lens of significant oil geopolitics.
Following US intervention in Venezuela, a notable surge in crude oil prices has been observed in the international market. Reports indicate that the US has concluded the initial phase of Venezuelan crude oil sales, amounting to approximately $500 million, with US officials confirming the potential for further such transactions in the coming months.
Amidst these developments, the US is now reportedly turning its attention to Iran’s oil reserves. Former President Donald Trump has openly hinted that Iran could be the next focal point, suggesting a major geopolitical upheaval is anticipated in the Middle East.
Expanding US Influence
In an interview with ABP Live, Professor Shivaji Sarkar of IIMC discussed these unfolding events. According to Professor Sarkar, former President Trump’s indication of Iran as a future target is part of a long-standing tension between the US and Iran, which dates back decades and has previously seen attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. He noted that the US had adopted a somewhat softer stance on Iran when India’s role concerning the Chabahar Port and Afghanistan (facilitating the North-South Corridor) became prominent. Trump reportedly believed that the US could establish access to Central Asia through India by leveraging this corridor.
Professor Sarkar further emphasized that US foreign policy strategy is typically designed for the long term, spanning 20-30 years, and is not confined to the tenure of a single president, who primarily serves to implement these overarching strategies.
Economic Drivers and Global Implications
Addressing the underlying motivations, Professor Sarkar highlighted that the US economy has faced sustained pressure since the 2007-08 financial crisis. The global dominance of the dollar is reportedly weakening as various nations distance themselves from it, and the dollar’s hold on global trade and foreign investment through bonds diminishes. In response, the US is seeking new avenues to bolster its economy.
While the American public may not desire conflict, Professor Sarkar pointed out the necessity of arms sales for the US defense industry. He suggested that if conflicts in Ukraine and between Israel and Gaza subside, Iran could emerge as a new front to sustain the arms manufacturing sector, a critical component of US strategy. Unlike Venezuela’s lower-quality oil, Iran possesses some of the world’s finest oil reserves. Control over these reserves would grant the US substantial influence over the global energy market.
Considering China is Iran’s largest oil purchaser, the US believes that applying pressure on Iran could also weaken China’s energy security. Furthermore, any significant US action against Iran, which is only about 1500 kilometers from India, would directly impact India’s energy security, the Chabahar Port, access to Central Asia, and the strategic dynamics between China and Pakistan. Professor Sarkar concluded that such a scenario signals a serious strategic crisis for both India and the broader Asian region.
The increasing US focus on Iran, following its engagement in Venezuela, underscores a new phase in the ongoing competition for oil, the dollar’s supremacy, and global dominance. Should this confrontation escalate, its repercussions would extend from the Middle East to Asia and India, necessitating a period of extremely cautious diplomacy and strategic equilibrium for India.
